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Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European COmmission Business and Consumer Surveys

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  • John A. Cotsomitis

    ()
    (Canadian Center for Research in Economics)

  • Andy C. C. Kwan

    ()
    (The Chinese University of Honk Kong)

Abstract

This paper represents a first formal attempt to examine the ability of consumer confidence to forecast household spending within a multicountry framework. To this end, we use two confidence indices, namely the Consumer Confidence Indicator and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, both of which are derived from the European Commission Business and Consumer Survey. As in previous single-country investigations, we find that there is much variability in the in-sample incremental forecasting performance of the confidence indices for the countries canvassed. Further, the results of our out-of-sample tests indicate that the confidence indices considered provide limited information about the future path of household spending.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Pages: 597-610

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:72:3:y:2006:p:597-610

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Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Paper, National Institute of Economic Research 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Luca Zanin, 2010. "The relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and real GDP growth: a time-varying coefficient approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 837-846.

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