The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long-Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies
AbstractThis article examines the relationship between output volatility and long-run growth for 18 developed countries between 1880 and 1990. The analysis builds on the existing literature by decomposing output growth volatility into expected and unexpected components and then examining whether the types of volatility have different effects on long-run growth. The results are consistent with the view that unexpected volatility reduces long-run growth and that expected volatility increases long-run growth. The results also suggest that the combined effect of expected and unexpected volatility is to reduce long-run growth for most countries and most time periods.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 71 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
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- WenSho Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2007.
"The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility,"
2007-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The relationship between economic growth and real uncertainty in the G3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 638-647, July.
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