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Transnational Terrorism 1968–2000: Thresholds, Persistence, and Forecasts

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  • Walter Enders

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama)

  • Todd Sandler

    ()
    (School of International Relations, University of Southern California)

Abstract

This article applies a threshold autoregression (TAR) model to a casualties time series to show that the autoregressive nature of such events depends on the level of terrorism at the time of a shock. Following a shock, persistence of heightened attacks characterizes low-terrorism regimes, but not high-terrorism regimes. Similar findings are associated with incidents with deaths, bombings with deaths, and hostage-taking. In contrast, the assassinations series indicates some persistence even in the high-terrorism state, whereas the threats/hoaxes series displays persistence in only the high-terrorism state. For all series studied, the TAR model outperforms a standard autoregressive representation. A forecasting method is engineered based on the TAR estimates and nicely tracks resource-using events.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 71 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Pages: 467-482

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:71:3:y:2005:p:467-482

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Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? System stability versus government efficiency: an empirical test," TWI Research Paper Series 41, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  3. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Ties That Do Not Bind (Directly): The Education-Terrorism Nexus Revisited," Working Papers CIE 26, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  4. Peren Arin, K. & Lorz, Oliver & Reich, Otto F.M. & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2011. "Exploring the dynamics between terrorism and anti-terror spending: Theory and UK-evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 189-202, February.
  5. Mialon, Hugo M. & Mialon, Sue H. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 2012. "Torture in counterterrorism: Agency incentives and slippery slopes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 33-41.

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