Transnational Terrorism 1968–2000: Thresholds, Persistence, and Forecasts
AbstractThis article applies a threshold autoregression (TAR) model to a casualties time series to show that the autoregressive nature of such events depends on the level of terrorism at the time of a shock. Following a shock, persistence of heightened attacks characterizes low-terrorism regimes, but not high-terrorism regimes. Similar findings are associated with incidents with deaths, bombings with deaths, and hostage-taking. In contrast, the assassinations series indicates some persistence even in the high-terrorism state, whereas the threats/hoaxes series displays persistence in only the high-terrorism state. For all series studied, the TAR model outperforms a standard autoregressive representation. A forecasting method is engineered based on the TAR estimates and nicely tracks resource-using events.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 71 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
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- Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2008.
"Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test,"
KOF Working papers
08-185, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-01, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? System stability versus government efficiency: an empirical test," TWI Research Paper Series 41, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Peren Arin, K. & Lorz, Oliver & Reich, Otto F.M. & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2011. "Exploring the dynamics between terrorism and anti-terror spending: Theory and UK-evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 189-202, February.
- Mialon, Hugo M. & Mialon, Sue H. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 2012. "Torture in counterterrorism: Agency incentives and slippery slopes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 33-41.
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