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Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence

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Author Info

  • Gaia Garino

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Leicester)

  • Lucio Sarno

    ()
    (University of Warwick, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

In this article, we test the view, widely held among both academics and practitioners, that speculative bubbles have characterized the time series behavior of U.K. house prices in recent times. We motivate our empirical analysis using a stylized overlapping-generations model which generates a housing demand function of the form assumed by a large literature, illustrating how rational bubbles may arise as a solution to the house price determination equation. Employing two recently developed econometric techniques specifically designed to test for rational bubbles, we then provide empirical evidence for the existence of bubbles in U.K. house prices over the sample period 1983–2002.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 70 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 777-795

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:70:4:y:2004:p:777-795

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Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Kwaku Opong, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Construction and Real Estate Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 516-542, April.
  3. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Les bulles 'robustes' : pourquoi il faut construire des logements en région parisienne," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
  4. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2012. "Nonlinear liquidity adjustments in the euro area overnight money market," Working Paper Series 1500, European Central Bank.
  5. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 14/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  6. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2007. "Comparing House Prices Across Regions and Time: An Hedonic Approach," Discussion Papers 2007-33, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  7. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  8. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2013. "Central bank reserves and interbank market liquidity in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 259-284.
  9. Quan Gan & Robert J. Hill, 2008. "A New Perspective on the Relationship Between House Prices and Income," Discussion Papers 2008-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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