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International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union

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Author Info

  • Selin Sayek

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund)

  • David D. Selover

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Old Dominion University)

Abstract

This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal-components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkey's economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkey's increasing economic integration into the EU.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 69 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 206-238

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:69:2:y:2002:p:206-238

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Cited by:
  1. Ondřej Glazar & Wadim Strielkowski, 2009. "Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows," Working Papers IES 2009/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2009.
  2. Michael Graff, 2006. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 226(4), pages 385-417, July.
  3. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
  4. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
  5. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.

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