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The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth

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  • Ólan T. Henry

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

  • Nilss Olekalns

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between output volatility and growth using postwar real GDP data for the United States. We expand on recent research bydocumenting the asymmetric effect of recessions on output growth. The results presented in this paper suggest that output volatility is highest when the economy is contracting. While we find that the economy expands most rapidly following a recession, this expansion is offset by the negative impact of output uncertainty.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 68 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Pages: 683-692

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:68:3:y:2002:p:683-692

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  1. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.
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  5. Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May.
  6. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  9. Bodman, P.M. & Crosby, M., 1998. "The Australian Business Cycle: Job Palooka or Dead Cat Bounce?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 649, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  12. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7," Working Papers 0064, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
  2. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  3. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
  4. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2002. "Non-linear Co-Movements in Output Growth: Evidence from the United States and Australia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 857, The University of Melbourne.
  5. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Are Economic Growth and the Variability of the Business Cycle Related? Evidence from Five European Countries," Working Papers 0063, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
  6. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
  8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
  9. Jorge Andraz & Nélia Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_17, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  10. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ólan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 870, The University of Melbourne.
  11. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Are they related?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  12. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2006. "The relationship between economic growth and real uncertainty in the G3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 638-647, July.
  13. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "The Link between Output Growth and Output Volatility in Five Crisis-Affected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 46068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Ageli, Mohammed, 2013. "Econometric Testing of the Displacement Effect: the Saudi Experience," MPRA Paper 50565, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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