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Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля

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  • Сосунов К. А.
  • Шумилов А. В.

Abstract

Используя методологический подход, предложенный Эдвардсом [4], в данной работе мы оцениваем равновесный реальный обменный курс российского рубля за период с начала 1995 г. до конца 2003 г. Согласно теоретической модели, равновесный обменный курс связан функциональной зависимостью (уравнение «сокращенной формы») с набором экзогенных переменных, называемых «фундаментальными». Для получения оценки равновесного обменного курса мы определяем набор фундаментальных переменных (условия торговли, производительность в секторе неторгуемых товаров, потоки капитала) и оцениваем уравнение «сокращенной формы», используя коинтеграционный тест Йохансена. Исследуются также скорость сходимости реального обменного курса к равновесному и влияние переменных монетарной и фискальной политики на краткосрочную динамику реального курса.

Suggested Citation

  • Сосунов К. А. & Шумилов А. В., 2005. "Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 9(2), pages 216-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:025886:15740173
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    1. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing the Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During the Managed Ruble Exchange Rate Regime [Тестирование Ассиметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновес," Working Papers 021808, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    3. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    4. A. Polbin., 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    5. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. A. V. Bozhechkova & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev & P. V. Trunin, 2020. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    8. Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2015. "Factor Analysis of the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mn11, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrei & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    10. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    11. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра), 2015. "Analysis of Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mak13, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    12. Yana Valeryevna Dyomina, 2014. "Balance of Payments of East Asian Countries: Impact of the Coordinated Monetary Policy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 138-152.
    13. Shumilov, Andrei, 2019. "Модели Зависимости Реального Курса Рубля От Цены И Стоимости Экспорта Нефти: Сравнительный Анализ [Oil prices versus oil export revenues as fundamental factors of the real Russian ruble exchange ra," MPRA Paper 96400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Skrobotov, Anton A. (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita D. (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During Ruble Exchange Rate Targeting [Тестирование Асимметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновесному Во Время," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 132-147, June.
    15. A. Polbin, 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policyregime change," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    16. Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
    17. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrey & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime-switching approach]," MPRA Paper 93310, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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