IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/vision/v10y2006i3p1-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Growth of Mobile Telephony Services in India

Author

Listed:
  • V. Sridhar

Abstract

Quick deployments, competition, advancement in technologies and reduced cost of access have propelled the growth of mobile services in India. Predicting growth of subscriber base is critical for service providers so that they can plan their network investments accordingly. Accurate forecast of subscriber base will also help policy makers and regulators to formulate appropriate policies and guidelines for sustainable growth of mobile services. It is the objective of the study to forecast better the penetration of mobile services. We demonstrate the use of internal influence based logistic model and constant rate exponential model for predicting growth of mobile services. We indicate that though these models forecast with reasonable amount of accuracy the early stages of mobile service diffusion in the country as we are currently witnessing, comprehensive models which take into consideration various external factors that affect growth of the sector need to be developed.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Sridhar, 2006. "Modelling the Growth of Mobile Telephony Services in India," Vision, , vol. 10(3), pages 1-10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1177/097226290601000301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097226290601000301
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/097226290601000301?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Madden, Gary & Coble-Neal, Grant & Dalzell, Brian, 2004. "A dynamic model of mobile telephony subscription incorporating a network effect," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 133-144, March.
    2. Sridhar, Kala Seetharan & Sridhar, Varadharajan, 2007. "Telecommunications Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Evidence From Developing Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 37-56.
    3. Bayes, Abdul & von Braun, Joachim & Akhter, Rasheda, 1999. "Village Pay Phones and Poverty Reduction: Insights from a Grameen Bank Initiative in Bangladesh," Discussion Papers 279849, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Jha, Raghbendra & Majumdar, Sumit K., 1999. "A matter of connections: OECD telecommunications sector productivity and the role of cellular technology diffusion," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 243-269, September.
    5. Rouvinen, Petri, 2006. "Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
    6. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1984. "Externalities, Information Costs, and Social Benefit-Cost Analysis for Economic Development: An Example from Telecommunications," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(2), pages 255-276, January.
    7. Milne, Claire, 1998. "Stages of universal service policy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 775-780, October.
    8. Lars-Hendrik Roller & Leonard Waverman, 2001. "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 909-923, September.
    9. repec:npf:wpaper:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mahler, Alwin & Rogers, Everett M., 1999. "The diffusion of interactive communication innovations and the critical mass: the adoption of telecommunications services by German banks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10-11), pages 719-740, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Quamrul Alam & Mohammad Abu Yusuf & Ken Coghill, 2010. "Unilateral liberalisation and WTO GATS commitments: the telecommunications sector in selected countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(1), pages 43-64, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varadharajan Sridhar, 2010. "An econometric analysis of mobile services growth across regions of India," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 205-220, October.
    2. Sridhar, Kala Seetharan & Sridhar, Varadharajan, 2007. "Telecommunications Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Evidence From Developing Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 37-56.
    3. Barman, Hemanta & Dutta, Mrinal Kanti & Nath, Hiranya K., 2018. "The telecommunications divide among Indian states," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 530-551.
    4. Keesookpuna, Chutipong & Mitomob, Hitoshi, 2012. "A developmental framework for ICT and labour productivity in the developing country: A case study of Thailand," 23rd European Regional ITS Conference, Vienna 2012 60378, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    5. Keesookpuna, Chutipong & Mitomob, Hitoshi, 2011. "Examining the relationship of communication service utilisation and productivity of labour in the developing country: A case study of Thailand," 8th ITS Asia-Pacific Regional Conference, Taipei 2011: Convergence in the Digital Age 52329, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    6. António Madureira & Nico Baken & Harry Bouwman, 2011. "Value of digital information networks: a holonic framework," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, April.
    7. Ward, Michael R. & Zheng, Shilin, 2016. "Mobile telecommunications service and economic growth: Evidence from China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 89-101.
    8. Madureira, António & den Hartog, Frank & Bouwman, Harry & Baken, Nico, 2013. "Empirical validation of Metcalfe’s law: How Internet usage patterns have changed over time," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 246-256.
    9. Centre for the Study of Living Standards, 2013. "The Contribution of Broadband to the Economic Development of First Nations in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2013-04, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    10. repec:ind:nipfwp:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Baburin, Vyacheslav & Zemtsov, Stepan, 2014. "Diffussion of ICT-products and "five Russias"," MPRA Paper 68926, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2014.
    12. repec:npf:wpaper:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gupta, Shagufta & Ghosh, Poulomi & Sridhar, V., 2022. "Impact of data trade restrictions on IT services export: A cross-country analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(9).
    14. Biancini, Sara, 2011. "Behind the scenes of the telecommunications miracle: An empirical analysis of the Indian market," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 238-249, April.
    15. Thornton Matheson & Patrick Petit, 2021. "Taxing telecommunications in developing countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 248-280, February.
    16. Ward, Michael R. & Zheng, Shilin, 2014. "Mobile telecommunications infrastructure and economic growth: Evidence from China," 25th European Regional ITS Conference, Brussels 2014 101405, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    17. Karen Eggleston & Robert Jensen & Richard Zeckhauser, 2002. "Information and Communication Technologies, Markets and Economic Development," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0203, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    18. Alberto Chong & Virgilio Galdo & Máximo Torero, 2005. "Does Privatization Deliver? Access to Telephone Services and Household Income in Poor Rural Areas Using a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Peru," Research Department Publications 4417, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    19. Ren, Siyu & Hao, Yu & Xu, Lu & Wu, Haitao & Ba, Ning, 2021. "Digitalization and energy: How does internet development affect China's energy consumption?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Alberto Chong & Virgilio Galdo & Máximo Torero, 2005. "¿Cumple la privatización lo que promete? El acceso a los servicios telefónicos y el ingreso familiar en zonas rurales pobres empleando un experimento cuasinatural en Perú," Research Department Publications 4418, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    21. Alderete, María Verónica, 2022. "The effect of broadband on economic growth in Latin America: an approach based on a simultaneous equations model," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    22. Mamoun Mohamad Matalqah & Talib Mohamed Warad, 2017. "The Impact of Telecom Infrastructure on the Economic Growth: The Case of Oil-producing and Non-Oil Producing Arab Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 423-428.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:1-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.