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Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Faruk Balli

    (Massey University, New Zealand)

  • Gazi Salah Uddin

    (Linköping University, Sweden)

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Montpellier Business School, France)

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on international tourism demand in emerging economies. We have found that impact of GPR is not homogeneous for every country in our sample; for example, some countries are affected heavily by GPR and others are mostly immune to GPR shocks. In general, for countries that have attractive tourism destinations, the impact of GPR is minimal, indicating that if international tourists desperately want to go a destination, they do not take GPR seriously. In addition, the tsunami impact of GPR is not the same for all affected countries. For some countries, the GPR shocks have an impact within 2 to 3 months of its ‘first hit’, while for other countries, the impact is felt over longer periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Faruk Balli & Gazi Salah Uddin & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 997-1005, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:6:p:997-1005
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816619831824
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunfeng Shang & Chunyu Bi & Xinyu Wei & Dayang Jiang & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2023. "Eco-tourism, climate change, and environmental policies: empirical evidence from developing economies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Khandokar Istiak, 2023. "Psychological factors of Canadian and Mexican tourists and the US tourism sector," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1328-1354, August.
    3. Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
    4. Khandokar Istiak, 2021. "Risk, uncertainty and the tourism sector of North Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(2), pages 329-342, June.
    5. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Alisa Kazakova & Insin Kim, 2021. "Geopolitical-Risk and Economic Policy—Uncertainty Impacts on Tourist Flows from Neighboring Countries: A Wavelet Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Faruk Balli & Mabruk Billah & Iftekhar Chowdhury, 2023. "Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on hospitality equity markets," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2206-2215, December.
    8. James E Payne & Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1333-1341, August.
    9. Chaker Aloui & Hela Ben Hamida & Besma Hkiri, 2021. "Democratic transition, political risk, economic instability, and tourist inflows: The case of Tunisia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1157-1165, August.
    10. Herman Suzana, 2023. "Dynamic Common Correlated Effects of Geopolitical Risk on International Tourism Arrivals," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 132-149, December.
    11. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & le Roux, Sara, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and tourism stocks: New evidence from causality-in-quantile approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-7.
    12. Ismet GOCER & Peter KOVACS, 2023. "The effects of geopolitical risks on tourism revenues of the Middle East and Asian countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 77-90, Spring.
    13. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Erum, Naila & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "Does higher innovation intensity matter for abating the climate crisis in the presence of economic complexities? Evidence from a Global Panel Data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    14. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    15. Haoke Ding & Yinghua Ren & Wanhai You, 2022. "Does uncertainty granger-causes visitor arrivals? evidence from the MF-VAR model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4193-4215, December.

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