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To believe or not believe…or not decide: A decision-theoretic model of agnosticism

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Pingle

    (University of Nevada, USA)

  • Tigran Melkonyan

    (University of Exeter, UK)

Abstract

Using decision theory, we construct a stylized theory of agnosticism, defined as choosing not to choose a religion. The theory indicates agnosticism can be supported as a rational choice if (a) adopting agnosticism provides in-life benefits relative to perceived religions, (b) the perceived payoff for agnosticism after death is not too much less than for any perceived religion, (c) no religion has a high perceived likelihood of truth, (d) the probability of death is neither too high nor too low, or (e) it is less costly to switch from agnosticism to a given religion than from one religion to another. Switching costs make the relative attractiveness of agnosticism dependent upon the perceived likelihood of receiving an informative signal about the truth of any perceived religion. Ironically, the lack of information that makes religious choice uncertain and difficult may contribute to decisiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Pingle & Tigran Melkonyan, 2012. "To believe or not believe…or not decide: A decision-theoretic model of agnosticism," Rationality and Society, , vol. 24(4), pages 408-441, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:408-441
    DOI: 10.1177/1043463112453555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tigran Melkonyan & Mark Pingle, 2010. "Ambiguity, pessimism, and rational religious choice," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 417-438, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Ziyao & Ma, Junfeng & Li, Donghui & Fu, Wentao, 2022. "Religious beliefs and stock market participation: Evidence from urban households in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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