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Up and Down the Generational Income Ladder in Britain: Past Changes and Future Prospects

Author

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  • Jo Blanden

    (Department of Economics, University of Surrey and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, J.Blanden@surrey.ac.uk)

  • Stephen Machin

    (Department of Economics, University College London and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, s.machin@ucl.ac.uk)

Abstract

This article seeks evidence on trends in intergenerational income for cohorts born after 1970. As many of these cohorts have not yet joined the labour market, we must look at relationships between intermediate outcomes (degree attainment, test scores and non-cognitive abilities) and parental income to forecast forward from these to estimates of intergenerational earnings correlations. We find no evidence that the relationship between these intermediate outcomes and parental income have changed for more recent cohorts. Evidence from the earlier 1958 and 1970 cohorts shows that as mobility declined in the past the relationship between intermediate outcomes and parental income strengthened. We therefore conclude that, under realistic assumptions and in the absence of any significant unanticipated changes, the decline in intergenerational mobility that occurred between 1958 and 1970 birth cohorts is unlikely to continue for cohorts born from 1970 to 2000. Mobility is therefore likely to remain at or near the relatively low level observed for the 1970 birth cohort.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo Blanden & Stephen Machin, 2008. "Up and Down the Generational Income Ladder in Britain: Past Changes and Future Prospects," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 205(1), pages 101-116, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:205:y:2008:i:1:p:101-116
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Brian Bell & Jack Blundell & Stephen Machin, 2023. "Where is the Land of Hope and Glory? The geography of intergenerational mobility in England and Wales," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 73-106, January.
    3. Francis Green & Stephen Machin & Richard Murphy & Yu Zhu, 2012. "The Changing Economic Advantage from Private Schools," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(316), pages 658-679, October.
    4. McNally, Sandra, 2010. "Evaluating education policies: the evidence from economic research," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57973, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Lorraine Dearden & Emla Fitzsimons & Gill Wyness, 2011. "The impact of tuition fees and support on university participation in the UK," IFS Working Papers W11/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Bell, Brian & Blundell, Jack & Machin, Stephen, 2018. "The changing geography of intergenerational mobility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91714, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Joanne Lindley & Stephen Machin, 2012. "The Quest for More and More Education: Implications for Social Mobility," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 265-286, June.
    8. Lucia Rizzica, 2018. "Raising aspirations and higher education: evidence from the UK’s Widening Participation policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1188, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intergenerational mobility; children;

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