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Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters

Author

Listed:
  • Gianna Boero
  • Jeremy Smith
  • Kenneth F. Wallis

    (University of Warwick, K.F.Wallis@warwick.ac.uk)

Abstract

This article analyses the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth by the individual respondents to the Bank of England's quarterly Survey of Extternal Forecasters, 1996-2005, using a recently released dataset. This comprises a conventioanl incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of repeated forecasts for the last quarter of each year. This fixed-event forecast structure allows study of the forecast revision process, its weak and strong efficiency, and its relation to macroeconomic news. The collection of density forecasts as well as point forecasts allows study of the revision process of forecast uncertainty

Suggested Citation

  • Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 203(1), pages 68-77, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:203:y:2008:i:1:p:68-77
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    Cited by:

    1. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
    2. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2014. "Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 177-191.
    3. Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
    4. Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
    5. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393.
    6. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.

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