Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict

Contents:

Author Info

  • Drago Bergholt

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School (BI))

  • Päivi Lujala

    (Department of Economics & Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO)

Abstract

Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/49/1/147.abstract
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Peace Research Institute Oslo in its journal Journal of Peace Research.

Volume (Year): 49 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 147-162

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:147-162

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.prio.no/

Related research

Keywords: armed civil conflict; climate change; climate-related natural disasters; economic growth;

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
  2. Ghimire, Ramesh & Ferreira, Susana, 2013. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: The Case of Large Floods," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142587, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  3. Giorgos Kallis & Christos Zografos, 2014. "Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 69-82, March.
  4. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:147-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.