The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games
AbstractA recent article on line changes in the point spread betting market for National Basketball Association games found evidence that trading incorporates information into price. This article examines a closely related but previously unexamined betting market--the betting market for the total points scored in a game. The authors find that closing totals lines are more accurate forecasts of total points scored than are opening totals lines. It is shown that line changes move betting lines in the correct direction and by the appropriate magnitude to eliminate biases in opening totals lines. Line changes in this betting market, like those in the point spread betting market, cause prices to more accurately reflect fundamental values.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by in its journal Journal of Sports Economics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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- Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
- Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
- Štrumbelj, Erik & Vračar, Petar, 2012. "Simulating a basketball match with a homogeneous Markov model and forecasting the outcome," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 532-542.
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