The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games
AbstractA recent article on line changes in the point spread betting market for National Basketball Association games found evidence that trading incorporates information into price. This article examines a closely related but previously unexamined betting market--the betting market for the total points scored in a game. The authors find that closing totals lines are more accurate forecasts of total points scored than are opening totals lines. It is shown that line changes move betting lines in the correct direction and by the appropriate magnitude to eliminate biases in opening totals lines. Line changes in this betting market, like those in the point spread betting market, cause prices to more accurately reflect fundamental values.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by in its journal Journal of Sports Economics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009.
"Issues in Sports Forecasting,"
2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Štrumbelj, Erik & Vračar, Petar, 2012. "Simulating a basketball match with a homogeneous Markov model and forecasting the outcome," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 532-542.
- Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.