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The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games

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Author Info

  • John M. Gandar

    (University of North Carolina, Charlotte)

  • Richard A. Zuber

    (University of North Carolina, Charlotte)

  • William H. Dare

    (Oklahoma State University)

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    Abstract

    A recent article on line changes in the point spread betting market for National Basketball Association games found evidence that trading incorporates information into price. This article examines a closely related but previously unexamined betting market--the betting market for the total points scored in a game. The authors find that closing totals lines are more accurate forecasts of total points scored than are opening totals lines. It is shown that line changes move betting lines in the correct direction and by the appropriate magnitude to eliminate biases in opening totals lines. Line changes in this betting market, like those in the point spread betting market, cause prices to more accurately reflect fundamental values.

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    File URL: http://jse.sagepub.com/content/1/2/177.abstract
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by in its journal Journal of Sports Economics.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 177-186

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    Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:1:y:2000:i:2:p:177-186

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    Related research

    Keywords: Basketball; Betting;

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    Cited by:
    1. Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Štrumbelj, Erik & Vračar, Petar, 2012. "Simulating a basketball match with a homogeneous Markov model and forecasting the outcome," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 532-542.
    3. Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.

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