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Playoff Uncertainty and Pennant Races

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  • Anthony C. Krautmann
  • Young Hoon Lee
  • Kevin Quinn

Abstract

Outcome uncertainty, a fundamental principle associated with Rottenberg, has many meanings in the sports economics literature. In this article, the authors consider a type of within-season uncertainty termed “playoff uncertainty†(PLU). As with any type of within-season uncertainty, this concept looks at how demanders respond to the probability that their team has a chance of winning over the course of the season. But more specifically, PLU focuses on whether attendance is affected by a team’s chance of making the playoffs. Looking at attendance data on a monthly basis, the authors find that a tighter pennant race does enhance league-wide attendance, but only for those months toward the end of the season when the pennant race is heating up.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony C. Krautmann & Young Hoon Lee & Kevin Quinn, 2011. "Playoff Uncertainty and Pennant Races," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(5), pages 495-514, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:12:y:2011:i:5:p:495-514
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002510388944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Mills & Rodney Fort, 2014. "League-Level Attendance And Outcome Uncertainty In U.S. Pro Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 205-218, January.
    2. Young Hoon Lee, 2013. "Estimation of temporal variations in fan loyalty: application of multi-factor models," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Stefan Késenne & Jaume García (ed.), The Econometrics of Sport, chapter 8, pages 135-153, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Young Hoon Lee, 2009. "The Impact of Postseason Restructuring on the Competitive Balance and Fan Demand in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 219-235, June.
    4. Ira Horowitz, 2018. "Competitive Balance in the NBA Playoffs," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 63(2), pages 215-227, October.
    5. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2018. "Team-Level Time Series Analysis in MLB, the NBA, and the NHL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 911-933, October.
    6. E. Woodrow Eckard, 2017. "The Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis and the Industrial Organization of Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(3), pages 298-317, April.

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    Keywords

    monthly attendance; playoff uncertainty;

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