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Forecasting European Union politics: Real-time forecasts in political time series analysis

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  • Michael M. Bechtel

    ()
    (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Dirk Leuffen

    (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

Forecasting plays an increasingly important role in the scientific study of European Union politics and in political science in general. This is because forecasts are not only indispensable for (political) actors who need to form expectations about future events, but can also be used to judge the validity of (competing) theoretical models. While the debate about whether political science should engage in forecasting is largely over, many questions about how this should be done in everyday research are still open. One of these is how forecasts of political time series can be derived from theoretical models. Using a practical example from European Union research, we start to address this question. We first show how forecasts of political time series can be derived from both theoretical and atheoretical models. Subsequently, we use an atheoretical time series (ARMA) imputation approach to demonstrate how they can be fruitfully integrated in order to overcome some of the limitations to making forecasts of political time series which are based on theoretical models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by in its journal European Union Politics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 309-327

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Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:11:y:2010:i:2:p:309-327

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Keywords: European Union; forecasting; imputation; legislative output; time series;

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Cited by:
  1. J. Bradford Jensen & Dennis P. Quinn & Stephen Weymouth, 2014. "The Influences Of Foreign Direct Investments, Intrafirm Trading, And Currency Undervaluation On U.S. Firm Trade Disputes," Working Papers, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau 14-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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