A Rank-Order Test on the Statistical Performance of Neural Network Models for Regional Labor Market Forecasts
AbstractUsing a panel of 439 German regions, we evaluate and compare the performance of various Neural Network (NN) models as forecasting tools for regional employment growth. Because of relevant differences in data availability between the former East and West Germany, the NN models are computed separately for the two parts of the country. The comparisons of the models and their ex post forecasts are carried out by means of a non-parametric test: viz. the Friedman statistic. The Friedman statistic tests the consistency of model results obtained in terms of their rank order. Since there is no normal distribution assumption, this methodology is an interesting substitute for a standard analysis of variance.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Regional Science Association in its journal Review of Regional Studies.
Volume (Year): 37 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Forecast; Forecasting; Neural Networks; Neural; Regional Labor Markets; Regional; Regions;
Other versions of this item:
- Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2005. "A Rank-order Analysis of Learning Models for Regional Labor Market Forecasting," Urban/Regional 0511004, EconWPA.
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
- R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
- R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
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