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"Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" - A Betting Platform for Better Prediction

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Author Info
Fang Fang () (College of Business Administration, California State University at San Marcos)
Maxwell Stinchcombe (Department of Economics, the University of Texas at Austin)
Andrew Whinston (Department of IROM, the University of Texas at Austin)
Abstract

We designed a platform with a betting mechanism for eliciting costly, dispersed information of different quality. Our objective is to elicit both dispersed information and the precision of the information so as to efficiently weight dispersed information to produce reliable forecasts. After deciding to incur the costs to acquire information, participants will report their forecasts and decide the size of their bets to indicate precision. Our mechanism selects those with relatively precise information at lower costs. We also discuss the implementation issues of our mechanism and the implication to fulfil the task of crowd sourcing.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Concept Economics in its journal Review of Network Economics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 214-238
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:rne:rneart:v:6:y:2007:i:2:p:214-238

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Web page: http://www.rnejournal.com

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Related research
Keywords: Betting mechanism; information; forecasts; crowd sourcing.;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
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