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Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models

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Author Info

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Roudoi, Andrei

    ()
    (Global Insight (DRI-WEFA), Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to 2010-2015 horizon, the authors use a mix of forecasting models, like „medium-term” ones and „long-run” models. In this respect three alternative models are used, a sustainability function model (for public debt and fiscal deficits), a simple econometric model based on a production function with FDI and exports included as inputs and a standard Cobb-Douglas model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 64-77

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:64-77

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Keywords: forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth;

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  2. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2003. "Estimating contribution of factors to long-term growth in Romania," MPRA Paper 14729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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