Medium-Run Scenarios Of The Romanian Economy
AbstractThe paper presents two scenarios, an inertial scenario and a restructuring scenario based on the last version of the author’s macromodel (Dobrescu 2000). The forecasts were made over a five-six years period and the indicators used were total population, population over 15 years, labour force, total retired people and retired people receiving state social insurance, excluding farmers. The inertial scenario (INERSC) has been simulated in several versions, all of them proving that the Romanian economy cannot surpass the present stagflation. The modelling premises for the restructuring scenario (RESSC) are strictly depending on the creation of a well-structured and functional market mechanism.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
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economic strategy; macromodel; Romanian transition economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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