Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

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Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

Author Info

Caraiani, Petre () (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

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Petre Caraiani

Abstract

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 182-192
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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:182-192

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

References listed on IDEAS
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Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2008. "Modeling The Economic Growth In Romania. The Role Of Human Capital," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, September. [Downloadable!]

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