Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model
AbstractIn this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
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forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
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