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Impact Of The Oil Petrol Price Changes On The Romanian Gross Domestic Product Using The Method Of Principal Components

Author

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  • Nicolae, Mariana

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

The spectacular evolution of the oil price, which exceeded the historic threshold of 50 dollar/barrel, worried the investors all over the world. The paper analyses the impact of oil price changes on some macroeconomic indicators and on the Gross Domestic Product in Romania using the method of principal components and the regression equations of the GDP, of the oil price level in the analyzed interval. Thus, an increase by 5% in the oil price in a quarter leads to a decrease by 0.05238% in GDP in the same interval. The method had been applied on a set of monthly indicators (for the period 1995-2002), with a structure of 98 percentage compatibility to the ones of partners. The use of the principal components method for the analysis of the impact of oil price change upon Gross Domestic Product revealed which of the components considered for the characterization of its evolution were more or less influenced by the changes in oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae, Mariana, 2004. "Impact Of The Oil Petrol Price Changes On The Romanian Gross Domestic Product Using The Method Of Principal Components," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(4), pages 106-115, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:1:y:2004:i:4:p:106-115
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; oil price; principal components method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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