Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
AbstractAbstract Behavioural finance has challenged many claims of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Unfortunately many of these challenges are in the form of anecdotal evidence and lack quantification. This article uses market data together with some simple statistics to show that in practice certain assertions of EMH and mathematical finance can be rejected with a high degree of confidence. The working of the FX market is used to demonstrate certain shortcomings of elegant results in mathematical finance that render them irrelevant in practice. An approach based on Markov chains is developed to model certain heuristic notions such as “fast market,” “support,” and “resistance,” that are widely used by “technical analysts” and practitioners. Using market observation, it is shown that this model better fits historical data than that implied by the assumption that daily returns are independent and normally distributed.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Capco Institute in its journal Journal of Financial Transformation.
Volume (Year): 32 (2011)
Issue (Month): ()
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Behavioral Finance; Technical Analysis; Volatility; Brownian Motion; Foreign Exchange; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Markov Chains; Mathematical Finance;
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