Trade Opening and the Behavior of Emerging Stock Market Prices
AbstractIn this paper we develop a model that explores the effect of trade openness on stock price behavior. The model predicts that stock returns show non-zero serial correlation in a closed economy. However, once the country opens on the trade front, the stock returns show zero serial correlation. The reason for the difference is that once the country opens itself to trade, the growth process becomes selfsustained due to optimal use of imported intermediate inputs. Stock prices reflect this gain in productive efficiency by displaying a random walk behavior. The model also establishes that financial opening alone without trade opening will not lead to gain in efficiency in the stock prices.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Trade Liberalization; Emerging Stock Markets; Stock Market Efficiency; Trade Openness;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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- Lim, Kian-Ping & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Trade openness and the informational efficiency of emerging stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2228-2238, September.
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