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The Influence of the Ruble Real Exchange Rate on the Russian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Brodsky, Boris

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

An econometric study of the influence of the ruble real exchange rate on the Russian economy is considered in the paper. The research, based on a disaggregated macroeconomic model, presents a theoretical description of the three main sectors of the Russian economy. The most important result is that the current ruble real appreciation causes the real output decline in the main sectors of the economy. On the other hand, stable expectations of the ruble real appreciation lead to growth of the economy real output. The conclusions are confirmed by results of an econometric study based on the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "The Influence of the Ruble Real Exchange Rate on the Russian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 4(4), pages 90-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aivazian, Sergei & Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "Macroeconometric modeling: modern trends, problems, an example of the econometric model of the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 2(2), pages 85-111.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mansoor Maitah & Elena Kuzmenko & Lubos Smutka, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate of Rouble and Competitiveness of Russian Agrarian Producers," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19, June.
    2. A. Polbin., 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    3. Kravtsov, Mikhail & Burdyka, Mikalai & Haspadarets, Burdyka & Shynkevich, Natallia & Kartun, Andrei, 2008. "An Econometric Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Key Indicators of the Belarusian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 10(2), pages 21-43.
    4. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    5. Афанасьев А.А. & Пономарева О.С., 2014. "Производственная Функция Народного Хозяйства России В 1990-2012 Гг," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 50(4), pages 21-33, октябрь.
    6. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatskiy, Alexander & Brodsky, Boris, 2014. "Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 32-60.
    7. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; macroeconomic model;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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