Modeling Dynamics of Oil Prices under Different Regimes of Oil Market Development
AbstractThe problem of modeling oil prices over the last three decades is analyzed. Because of radical changes of regimes on the oil market necessity of studying two periods of time (the 1980’s to the end of 1990’s and the end of 1990’s to 2008) is discussed. Two aggregate models reflecting the situation over the two periods are built: an econometric model of dynamics of oil market indicators and aggregate monetarist model of the US economy including an oil price prediction bloc. The influence of priorities of monetary policy on dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and oil prices is studied. Necessity of a parallel study of influence of high oil prices on oil sensitive industries is emphasized
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS" in its journal Applied Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 13 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/
modeling; oil prices; aggregate monetarist model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berg, Elin & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 1998.
"Gains from cartelisation in the oil market,"
Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 725-727, August.
- Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
- Varshavsky, Leonid, 2010. "Crisis of financial system and evolution of commodities market," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 17(1), pages 30-44.
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