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Predicting success in college on the basis of the results of unified national exam

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  • Poldin, Oleg

    (Higher School of Economics, Russia)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of econometric study on predicting first-year grade point average and dropout probability with national examination (EGE) results at the bachelor program in Economics in the Higher School of Economics. The use of a sum of four exams — math, social studies, Russian language and foreign language — shows worse fitting than a sum of three exams, excluding foreign language. In models with separate exams as regressors, the greatest effect on dependent variable provides math grades.

Suggested Citation

  • Poldin, Oleg, 2011. "Predicting success in college on the basis of the results of unified national exam," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 21(1), pages 56-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rothstein, Jesse M, 2004. "College performance predictions and the SAT," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt59s4j4m4, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Rothstein, J.M.Jesse M., 2004. "College performance predictions and the SAT," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 297-317.
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    Cited by:

    1. Androushchak, Gregory & Poldin, Oleg & Yudkevich, Maria, 2012. "Peer effects in exogenously formed student groups," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 26(2), pages 3-16.
    2. Prakhov, Ilya, 2012. "The unified state examination and the determinants of academic achievement: Does investment in pre-entry coaching matter?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 27(3), pages 86-108.
    3. Ilya Prakhov, 2019. "The Determinants Of Expected Returns On Higher Education In Russia: A Human Capital Theory Perspective," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/EDU/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Davtian, Misak, 2011. "Russian USE and olympiads as instruments for university admission selection," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 23(3), pages 41-56.
    5. Poldin, Oleg & Silaeva, Vera & Silaev, Andrey, 2014. "Comparing quality of admission to universities by the results of olympiads and unified state exams scores," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 118-132.
    6. Evgeniya Popova & Marina Sheina, 2017. "Does Studying in a Strong School Guarantee Good College Performance?," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 128-157.
    7. Zamkov, Oleg & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Russian Unified National Exams (UNE) and academic performance of ICEF HSE students," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 93-114.
    8. Ekaterina Kochergina & Ilya Prakhov, 2016. "Relationships between Risk Attitude, Academic Performance, and the Likelihood of Drop-outs," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 4, pages 206-228.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    university admission; entrance examination; predicting GPA; Tobit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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