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Infractions au Code de la sécurité routière, infractions au Code criminel et gestion optimale de la sécurité routière

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  • Boyer, Marcel

    (Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal)

  • Vanasse, Charles

    (Centre de recherche sur les transports, Université de Montréal)

Abstract

In this article, we study the statistical relationships between individual probabilities of accidents and both different infractions to the Quebec Code of Road Safety and some infractions to the Criminal Code which carry a suspension of the driving permit. We propose new tables of demerit points based on marginal variations in the individual probabilities of accidents obtained from regression analysis and we compare our results to the Quebec official table (1987). We show among other results that infractions for excessive speed should be less penalized, that infractions associated to impaired (alcohol) driving and to illegal passing of school buses imply high probabilities of accident, and that drivers with no infractions represent relatively low accident risks. Our results can be used to improve the management of road safety. We propose three different methods in this article. Each can be viewed either as a substitute or a complement to risk-based pricing of car insurance. Dans cet article, nous étudions les relations statistiques entre les probabilités individuelles d’accidents et les diverses infractions au Code de la sécurité routière et certaines infractions au Code criminel entraînant des révocations-suspensions du permis de conduire. Nous construisons des tables de points d’inaptitude reflétant les variations marginales de probabilité d’accidents obtenues à partir de nos résultats statistiques et nous les comparons à la table des points d’inaptitude en vigueur au Québec en 1987. Nous montrons entre autres que les infractions pour vitesse excessive devraient être pénalisées moins lourdement, que les infractions reliées à la consommation d’alcool et au dépassement illégal d’autobus scolaires impliquent des probabilités d’accidents très élevées, et que les conducteurs ayant un dossier d’infractions vierge représentent des risques d’accidents beaucoup moins élevés. Nos résultats statistiques pourraient être utilisés de plusieurs façons afin d’améliorer la gestion de la sécurité routière. Nous en développons trois différentes dans cet article. Chacune peut être considérée comme un substitut ou un complément à la tarification différenciée de l’assurance automobile.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 67 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
Pages: 279-305

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:67:y:1991:i:3:p:279-305

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Web page: http://www.scse.ca/
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