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Il rallentamento della produttivita' del lavoro e la crescita dell'occupazione. Il ruolo del progresso tecnologico e della flessibilita' del lavoro

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Author Info

  • Enrico SALTARI

    () (Sapienza Universita' di Roma)

  • Giuseppe TRAVAGLINI

    () (Universita' di Urbino)

Abstract

In this paper we argue that the deceleration of labor productivity is at the root of the slowdown of the European economic growth over the last fifteen years. Using a simple dynamic model of the labor market, we show that this poor performance can only be accounted for by a combination of two shocks: an adverse technological shock to the labor demand and a positive non technological shock to the labor supply. We are interested in the long run properties of the model, so we use economic theory to study the long run impacts of different shocks to identify the model. Shocks which affect permanently productivity can lead to a transition from one steady state to another. We use a structural VAR to estimate the contri38 bution of the technological and non technological shocks to the dynamics of employment and labor productivity. Our main result is that the technological shock is able to explain the decrease of the growth rate of productivity but not the increase in employment. In turn, the non technological shock can capture the dynamics of employment but not the slowdown of labor roductivity. Thus, both shocks are necessary to provide a complete picture of the employment-productivity rade-off in Europe during the last ten years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by SIE - Societa' Italiana degli Economisti (I) in its journal Rivista Italiana degli Economisti.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 3-38

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Handle: RePEc:rie:review:v:13:y:2008:i:1:n:1

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Related research

Keywords: Labor market; Productivity slowdown; SVAR;

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References

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Belot, Michele & van Ours, Jan C., 2001. "Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 403-418, December.
  3. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "Labour Market Institutions and Unemployment in OECD Countries," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(2), pages 13-26, October.
  4. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel & Glenda Quintini, 2001. "The Beveridge Curve, Unemployment and Wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s - Preliminary Version," CEP Discussion Papers dp0502, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
  7. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, 01.
  8. Belot, M.V.K. & Ours, J.C. van, 2000. "Does the Recent Success of some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reforms?," Discussion Paper 2000-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Enrico Saltari & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2007. "Sources of Productivity Slowdown in European Countries During 1990s," Discussion Papers 07/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  10. Robert J. Gordon & Ian Dew-Becker, 2005. "Why did Europe’s productivity catch-up sputter out? a tale of tigers and tortoises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Cited by:
  1. Pupo Valeria & Aiello Francesco, 2009. "L'impatto della politica regionale dell'Unione Europea. Uno studio sulle regioni italiane," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 421-454.

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