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Déficit público e inestabilidad de los tipos de cambio

Author

Listed:
  • M.Araceli Rodríguez

    (Universidad de Valladolid)

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es mostrar la influencia del déficit presupuestario sobre la estabilidad del tipo de cambio de una moneda. En un momento en el que el PEC está siendo cuestionado por la debilidad cíclica de Europa, en este estudio se plantea la relevancia de unas finanzas públicas saneadas sobre la fortaleza o debilidad de una moneda. En primer lugar, partiendo de las turbulencias de la peseta española en las bandas del SME, el modelo de Markov con Saltos de Régimen permite la identificación de diferentes periodos especulativos. Posteriormente, la extensión del modelo a probabilidades de transición variables entre los estados, dependiendo de la variación del déficit público, posibilita el hallazgo de ladecisiva influencia de esta variable sobre esas perturbaciones.

Suggested Citation

  • M.Araceli Rodríguez, 2007. "Déficit público e inestabilidad de los tipos de cambio," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 15(3), pages 41-64, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:rev:reveca:v:15:y:2007:i:3:p:41-64
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    turbulencias monetarias; déficit público; modelo de Markov; probabilidades variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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