Testing Efficiency of Guar seed Futures: Empirical Evidence from India
AbstractThe paper aims to study the market efficiency, unbiasedness among Guar seed futures contracts traded at National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX). The study has tested the market efficiency and unbiasedness with different maturities using cointegration analysis, and short-term market efficiency, using an error correction model and GARCH-M-ECM. The results suggest that futures market for guar seed is inefficient and biased in both short run and long run for all maturity periods, which may be caused by over-speculation or market manipulation. The results indicate an urgent need to provide more powers to FMC to regulate the market and penalize any insider trading, cartelization and price manipulations.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest in its journal Romanian Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 16 (2013)
Issue (Month): 47 (March)
Cointegration; Market efficiency; Futures market; Guar gum;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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