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Persistent, Nonfundamental Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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  • Irasema Alonso

    (University of Rochester)

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    Abstract

    A trading-post model of money is used to show how exchange rates can be affected by extrinsic uncertainty. With no uncertainty in fundamentals, we demonstrate that there exist equilibria where exchange rates as well as consumption allocations follow a stationary random process. The uctuations are permanent, and they affect economic welfare. These findings also apply when the currency supplies grow at different rates. Then, the only stationary equilibria in which both monies are valued are those with uctuations: the real value of the currencies follow a stationary process, and the average return on the fast-growing currency is lower than that of the slow-growing currency. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2003.12.003
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 687-706

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    Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:687-706

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    1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    2. King, Robert G. & Wallace, Neil & Weber, Warren E., 1992. "Nonfundamental uncertainty and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 83-108, February.
    3. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2167-2195, November.
    4. Shubik, Martin, 1990. "A game theoretic approach to the theory of money and financial institutions," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 171-219 Elsevier.
    5. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
    6. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Peck, James, 1990. "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 559-74, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. M. Salto & T. Pietra, 2011. "Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates," Working Papers wp758, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Alexei Deviatov & Igor Dodonov, 2006. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate disconnect, and the failure of volatility conservation," Working Papers w0079, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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