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Technological Change and the Age-Earnings Profile: Evidence from the International Merchant Marine, 1861-1912

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Author Info
Peter Thompson (Carnegie Mellon University)

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Abstract

Models of vintage-specific learning predict systematic cross-technology differences in earnings among otherwise identical employees. This paper outlines a vintage learning model based on Chari and Hopenhayn's (1991, Journal of Political Economy) exposition. The model predicts that (i) the age-earnings profile is steeper in new technologies, (ii) the discounted present value of lifetime earnings are equalized across technologies, and (iii) the age-earnings profile in newer technologies becomes flatter over time. These predictions find support from a data set spanning a 52 year period beginning in 1861 that matches over 141,000 wage contracts accepted by merchant mariners to the technologies with which they worked. As a by-product, the paper reports some of the oldest evidence yet made available of the returns to literacy. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00014-0
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 578-601
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:578-601

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Related research
Keywords: technology diffusion; vintage human capital; age-earnings profile; literacy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change
N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins Of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Willis, Robert J., 1987. "Wage determinants: A survey and reinterpretation of human capital earnings functions," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 525-602 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bartel, Ann P & Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1987. "The Comparative Advantage of Educated Workers in Implementing New Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-11, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hanoch, Giora & Honig, Marjorie, 1985. ""True" Age Profiles of Earnings: Adjusting for Censoring and for Period and Cohort Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 383-94, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Doms, Mark & Dunne, Timothy & Troske, Kenneth R, 1997. "Workers, Wages, and Technology," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 253-90, February.
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  9. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1999. "Education and Income in the Early 20th Century: Evidence from the Prairies," NBER Working Papers 7217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barry Bosworth & Gary Burtless & Eugene Steuerle, 2002. "Lifetime Earnings Patterns, The Distribution Of Future Social Security Benefits, And The Impact Of Pension Reform," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 1999-06, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Vintage Capital and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 6416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Grubb, Farley, 1985. "The Market for Indentured Immigrants: Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward-Labor Contracting in Philadelphia, 1745?1773," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 855-868, December. [Downloadable!]
  15. Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Technological Acceleration, Skill Transferability and the Rise in Residual Inequality," ILR working papers 063, Institute for Labour Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bruinshoofd,Allard & Weel,Bas,ter, 1998. "Skill-biased technical change: On technology and wages in the Netherlands," Research Memoranda 021, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  17. DiNardo, John E & Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1997. "The Returns to Computer Use Revisited: Have Pencils Changed the Wage Structure Too?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 291-303, February.
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  18. Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change and Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 47-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Krueger, Alan B, 1993. "How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 33-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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