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The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?

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  • Mariana Mazzucato

    (Economics Department, The Open University)

Abstract

The paper studies the co-evolution of industrial turbulence and financial volatility in the early phase of the life-cycle of an old high-tech industry and a new high-tech industry: the U.S. auto industry from 1899-1929 and the U.S. PC industry from 1974-2000. In both industries, the first three decades were characterized by industrial turbulence: radical technological change, high entry and exit rates, and rapidly falling prices. However, unlike in the auto industry, in the PC industry technological change and new entry did not lead to strong instability of market shares-at the core of the monopoly-destroying effect of Schumpeterian creative destruction-until the 1990s, when the lead of the incumbents from the pre-existing mainframe and minicomputer industries was undermined. In both industries, stock prices were the most volatile and idiosyncratic during those years in which technological change disrupted market shares the most (Autos: 1918-1928; PCs: 1990-2000).

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.2002.0164
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 318-345

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:318-345

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Related research

Keywords: industry life-cycle; new economy; technological change; risk; stock price volatility.;

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References

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Darren Filson, . "The Nature and Effects of Technological Change Over the Industry Life Cycle," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-05, Claremont Colleges.
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  5. Stavins, Joanna, 1995. "Model Entry and Exit in a Differentiated-Product Industry: The Personal Computer Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 571-84, November.
  6. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Wayne Wu, 1999. "The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 44, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  8. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April.
  10. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L, 1997. "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into Their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 379-460, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mariana Mazzucato & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2005. "Innovation and Idiosyncratic Risk: an Industry & Firm Level Analysis," Open Discussion Papers in Economics 50, The Open University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
  2. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2005. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 5428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Mariana Mazzucato, 2006. "Innovation and Stock Prices: a Review of some Recent Work," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 159-179.
  4. Robert Crandall & Charles Jackson, 2011. "Antitrust in High-Tech Industries," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 319-362, June.
  5. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2004. "The diffusion of electronic business in the U.S," Working Papers 2004-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "The relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns in G7 countries," Working Papers 2006-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. John Stanley Metcalfe, 2003. "Industrial Growth and the Theory of Retardation. Precursors of an Adaptive Evolutionary Theory of EconomicChange," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(2), pages 407-431.
  8. Jackie Krafft & Jacques-Laurent Ravix, 2008. "Corporate governance and the governance of knowledge: rethinking the relationship in terms of corporate coherence," Post-Print hal-00203550, HAL.
  9. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "The Pre-Producers," 2004 Meeting Papers 91, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Jackie Krafft & Jacques-Laurent Ravix, 2005. "The governance of innovative firms: an evolutionary approach," Post-Print hal-00203620, HAL.
  12. Mariana Mazzucato & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2012. "R&D, patents and stock return volatility," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 811-832, September.

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