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Private Experience in Adaptive Learning Models

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  • Felipe Perez-Marti

    (IESA, Caracas)

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    Abstract

    Experiments conducted by Marimon and Sunder as reported in Econometrica, 1993, show that people initially do not behave according to the rationally expectations assumption, but eventually learn to choose its low stationary steady state in a hyperinflationary world. We propose a slight generalization of the adaptive learning model in order to explain, beyond the long-run equilibrium observed, the erratic oscillations of the experimental variables. The introduction of heterogeneity in private experience in a simple adaptive model with fixed, deterministic, decision rules is shown to be necessary and sufficient to generate the complex dynamics present in the experiments. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.1999.0083
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 283-310

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    Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:3:y:2000:i:2:p:283-310

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    1. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    2. Anderson, M.J. & Sunder, S., 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," GSIA Working Papers 1995-05, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
    4. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    5. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: Experimental evidence," Economics Working Papers 25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Subjective Equilibrium in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1231-40, September.
    7. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 2002. "Asymptotic Properties of Some Projection-based Robbins-Monro Procedures in a Hilbert Space," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4z4380t7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S401-26, October.
    9. Simon, Herbert A, 1986. "Rationality in Psychology and Economics," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S209-24, October.
    10. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
    11. Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Merging Economic Forecasts," Discussion Papers 1035, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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    Cited by:
    1. David K. Levine & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Introduction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 213-215, April.
    2. David K Levine & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Introduction: The Dynamic Games Special Issue," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2127, David K. Levine.

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