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Revisiting the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles

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Author Info

  • Per Krusell

    (Princeton University)

  • Toshihiko Mukoyama

    (University of Virginia)

  • Aysegul Sahin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Anthony A. Smith, Jr.

    (Yale University)

Abstract

We investigate the welfare effects of eliminating business cycles in a model with substantial consumer heterogeneity. The heterogeneity arises from uninsurable and idiosyncratic uncertainty in preferences and employment status. We calibrate the model to match the distribution of wealth in U.S. data and features of transitions between employment and unemployment. In comparison with much of the literature, we find rather large effects. For our benchmark model, we find welfare effects that, on average across all consumers, are of a bit more than one order of magnitude larger than those computed by Lucas (1987). When we distinguish long- from short-term unemployment, long-term unemployment being distinguished by poor (and highly procylical) employment prospects and low unemployment compensation, the average gain from eliminating cycles is as much as 1% in consumption equivalents. In addition, in both models, there are large differences across groups: very poor consumers gain a lot when cycles are removed (the long-term unemployed as much as around 30%), as do very rich consumers, whereas the majority of consumers---the "middle class"---sees much smaller gains from removing cycles. Inequality also rises substantially upon removing cycles. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 393-402

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:08-211

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Related research

Keywords: Cost of business cycles; Incomplete markets; Heterogeneity;

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References

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  1. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," GSIA Working Papers 1997-37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  2. Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Sahin, Aysegul, 2006. "Costs of business cycles for unskilled workers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2179-2193, November.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Why all the fuss about business cycles?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-09-01 14:25:00
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Cited by:
  1. Tom Krebs, 2004. "Welfare Cost of Business Cycles When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers 2004-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Den Haan, Wouter & Sedlacek, Petr, 2009. "Inefficient employment decisions, entry costs, and the cost of fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jung, Philip & Kuester, Keith, 2011. "The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1744-1768, October.
  4. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2010. "Welfare effects of unanticipated policy changes with complete asset markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 134-138, November.
  5. Daniel R. Carroll & Eric R. Young, 2009. "The long run effects of changes in tax progressivity," Working Paper 0913, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin, 2009. "Labor-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alisdair McKay & Tamas Papp, 2011. "Accounting for Idiosyncratic Wage Risk Over the Business Cycle," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-028, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  8. Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Sahin, Aysegul, 2006. "Costs of business cycles for unskilled workers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2179-2193, November.
  9. Janet L. Yellen & George A. Akerlof, 2006. "Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
  10. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49.
  11. Sparber, Chad, 2011. "Unemployment, Skills, and the Business Cycle Since 2000," Working Papers 2011-04, Department of Economics, Colgate University.

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