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Common Currency and Determinants of Government Bond Risk Premiums

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  • Grzegorz Poniatowski

    (Center for Social and Economic Research and Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

The problem of governments’ over-indebtedness is one of the most important challenges for today’s EMU governance. As numbers suggest, the problem of extensive deficits has appeared in the EMU long before the burst of the global financial crisis. We suspect that the membership in a currency area might be partially blamed for such progression of indebtedness. This paper examines the determinants of government risk premiums in the EU Member States to answer if the risk premium assigned by the market may give currency area Member States additional incentives for profligacy. Controlling other factors, we investigate the pattern in which fiscal deficits and GDP growth affect the yield of 10-year-maturity government bonds in the euro area and the non-euro area EU Member States. Our results are straightforward. The market penalizes EU countries that do not belong to the euro area for bad economic performance and extensive deficits from 4 to 7 times stronger. Our estimates confirm the strong impact of the common credibility problem in the EMU but also support the key role of financial stress in determining the cost of government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Poniatowski, 2014. "Common Currency and Determinants of Government Bond Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 70-87, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:70-87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government bond yields; common credibility; bond market; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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