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Disparités de croissance et de politiques économiques en Europe

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  • Olivier Passet
  • Catherine Mathieu

Abstract

[eng] Growth and Economic Policies en Europe. Catherine Mathieu, Olivier Passet. The role of restrictive economic policies has been frequently high lighted to explain the low growth rates of European countries for several years. However, the European average growth rate results from various domestic situations : the countries can be divided into three groups, depending on growth performance (dynamic intermediate and « low growth »). This article focuses on the link between growth and monetary conditions in each European country. A monetary conditions indicator is presented. This indicator reflects the evolution of both interest rates and real effective exchange rates. Monetary conditions and budgetary policies appear to match the differences in growth recorded since 1993. In particular, the lack of internal demand only applies to the countries of the centre of the European Union (mainly France and Germany), where positive external contributions have not entailed increases in internal demand, thus resulting low growth in accordance with the monetary and budgetary conditions. According to the indicators presented here monetary, as well as budgetary, conditions do not have anymore restrictive impact on growth in 1997, and would not prevent growth extending from dynamic to « low growth » countries. [fre] Le poids des contraintes de politique économique est fréquemment évoqué pour expliquer les médiocres performances des pays européens au cours des dernières années. La croissance moyenne de l'Union européenne, depuis plus de quatre ans, abrite néanmoins des situations régionales très dispersées. Cet article cherche à faire le lien entre les différentes dynamiques régionales et le poids des contraintes monétaire et budgétaire qui ont pesé sur chaque pays. Un indicateur de dureté monétaire, qui regroupe l'influence des taux d'intérêt réels et du taux de change effectif réel, et synthétise l'intensité de la contrainte monétaire par pays est présenté. Son évolution récente, mais aussi son niveau (dont l'évaluation est plus discutable), permettent d'établir une correspondance assez satisfaisante avec une typologie des performances de croissance depuis 1993, selon que les pays sont dynamiques, intermédiaires ou bloqués. Complétée de sa composante budgétaire, la contrainte de politique économique globale apparaît comme un élément dominant de la différence des performances de croissance entre pays européens. Le blocage de la demande intérieure dans les pays du centre, notamment en France et en Allemagne, n'apparaît alors plus comme un mal qui frapperait l'ensemble de l'espace européen, incapable de relayer l'impulsion positive venue de l'extérieur depuis plusieurs années. Ce problème semble au contraire localisé et étroitement lié aux conditions de politique économique. Les indicateurs construits ici incitent à penser que les conditions monétaire et budgétaire ne constituent plus actuellement un frein à la diffusion du dynamisme de la périphérie aux pays « bloqués » de l'Europe.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1998.1489
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 64 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 157-176

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_64_1_1489

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1489
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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