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Mosaïque : la nouvelle version du modèle OFCE trimestriel

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  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Marie-Ange Veganzones
  • Catherine Mathieu
  • Alain Gubian

Abstract

[eng] In this article the new version of the OFCE quarterly macroeconomic model of the French economy is presented. This model is used both for forecasts and economic policy analyses. The model basicallly of the neo-keynesian type, is desaggregating the economy into five sectors and six products. First the overall model properties are described, then a set of ten standard simulations is released, covering areas of domestic policy as well as changes in the external environment. [fre] Le modèle Mosaïque (MOdèle pour la Simulation, l'Analyse et l'Interprétation QUantitative de l'Economie) est la nouvelle version du modèle macroéconométrique trimestriel de l'économie française de l'OFCE. Il est utilisé à la fois pour la prévision, notamment de court terme, et l'étude des politiques économiques. D'inspiration néokeynésienne, ce modèle distingue sept branches (agriculture et IAA, énergie, industrie manufacturière, BTP, commerces, services marchands et secteur non marchand) et cinq agents. La désagrégation retenue, y compris pour les opérations de répartition, permet une analyse précise de nombreuses mesures de politique économique et des chocs extérieurs. La description du chômage tient compte des différentes composantes de la politique de l'emploi. Par ailleurs l'investissement du secteur industriel, décrit par un modèle de déséquilibre, prend en compte simultanément les contraintes de débouchés et de profitabilité. Cet article présente la logique et les principales relations du modèle ainsi que les résultats de plusieurs variantes de base (hausse des dépenses publiques, baisse de la fiscalité, chocs externes, hausse des taux d'intérêt...).

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1992.1272
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_40_1_1272/ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_40_1_1272.pdf?mode=light
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 40 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 141-200

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_40_1_1272

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1992.1272
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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Cited by:
  1. Anonymous or collective, 1998. "La demande des ménages," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 134(3), pages 41-56.

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