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L'investissement direct des Etats-Unis dans les pays occidentaux depuis 1980 : une évaluation économétrique

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  • Jérôme Henry

Abstract

[eng] Since 1980 the direct investments of the United States in western developed countries have fluctuated considerably. The large disinvestment of the early eighties in Europe and Canada has been recently followed by substantial reinvestments. This paper introduces a theoretical explanation of the decision to invest abroad, considered as a two-step process : the allocation of productive capital and the financing of investment. Depending on how foreign subsidiaries are bound to their parent, we get two possible modelling formulations. Whatever modelling method is chosen, the econometric tests performed for every country (Canada, United-Kingdom, West-Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy) over the period 1962-1986 stress the financial return of setting up production abroad. The other variables considered (factor costs and local demands) play a minor part in the accumulation of capital abroad. In addition, we test the hypothesis of a common evolution of the share of exports in production and the accumulation of direct investment abroad. On the basis of the figures for Canada, the Netherlands, France and Italy, we observe that such a relation does exist between exports of US goods and US capital. [fre] Depuis 1980 les investissements directs des Etats-Unis dans les pays occidentaux ont connu des fluctuations spectaculaires. En Europe et au Canada un réinvestissement substantiel a récemment succédé au désengagement massif du début des années quatre-vingt. Nous proposons un cadre d'explication qui décompose la décision d'investissement direct à l'étranger en deux étapes : l'allocation du capital productif et le financement de l'investissement. Selon le degré d'autonomie des filiales vis-à-vis de leur maison-mère nous obtenons deux formulations possibles du modèle. Quelle que soit la formulation retenue, les tests économétriques effectués sur la période 1962-1986 mettent en avant dans tous les pays (Canada, Royaume-Uni, RFA, Pays-Bas, France et Italie) le poids du rendement des implantations. Les autres variables prises en compte (coûts des facteurs et demandes locales) jouent un rôle moindre dans l'accumulation du capital délocalisé. De plus nous testons l'hypothèse d'un effet d'entraînement entre la part des exportations dans la production et le rythme d'accumulation des investissements directs à l'étranger. Vers le Canada, les Pays-Bas, la France et l'Italie on constate bien l'existence d'une telle relation entre les exportations de biens et de capitaux américains.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1989.1168
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_26_1_1168/ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_26_1_1168.pdf?mode=light
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 26 (1989)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 165-188

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_26_1_1168

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1989.1168
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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