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Déficit budgétaire, solde extérieur et politique macroéconomique : un modèle simple appliqué à la France

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  • Michael Keith Anyadike-Danes
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    Abstract

    [fre] Le déficit budgétaire et le solde de la balance des paiements occupent une importance croissante dans les discussions et la formulation de la politique macroéconomique. Pourtant la nature des liens entre ces soldes et leur relation avec l'activité économique n'apparaît pas toujours clairement. Dans cet article on propose une approche directe d'évaluation de ces relations, fondée sur l'interdépendance entre les comportements de financement des différents secteurs de l'économie. Cette méthode de modélisation intégrée de l'accumulation d'actifs financiers et de la détermination du revenu et de la dépense fournit un instrument simple pour l'analyse des évolutions du déficit budgétaire et du solde extérieur français. Elle permet de mieux comprendre les raisons de la détérioration des échanges commerciaux de la France en 1982 et d'analyser simplement et rapidement les effets sur le déficit budgétaire et la balance des paiements des modifications de la politique financière ou des performances commerciales de l'économie française. [eng] The state of the balance of payments and of the government's budget deficit have become increasingly important in the discussion and formulation of macroeconomic policy and yet the nature of the links between these two « targets » and their connection with the functioning of the economy often seems somewhat obscure. A unified treatment of these issues is made possible though, by using the properties of the relationship between flows of private income and expenditure, which yields a relatively precise account of the sources of growth in national income and the associated factors determining the evolution of the balance of payments and the budget deficit over the last two decades. Not only can such an approach help to identify the proximate causes of the unforeseen doubling of France's external deficit in 1982, but it also provides a tool for simply and rapidly examining the implications for the budget and the balance of payments of changes in fiscal policy and in foreign trade performance.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1985.1022
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1985_num_11_1_1022/ofce_0751-6614_1985_num_11_1_1022.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 11 (1985)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 153-175

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1985_num_11_1_1022

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1985.1022
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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