IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rvofce/ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_6_1_967.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La baisse de la rentabilité aux États-Unis : inventaire de recherches et mise en perspective historique

Author

Listed:
  • Gérard Duménil
  • Mark Glick
  • José Rangel

Abstract

[fre] La rentabilité du capital a beaucoup baissé aux États-Unis depuis la deuxième guerre mondiale. L'analyse des nombreuses études désormais disponibles sur ce thème permet de reconstituer les grandes lignes du profil de cette baisse. Le taux élevé des années quarante et du début des années cinquante fléchit notablement jusqu'en 1958 environ. La remontée est ensuite spectaculaire jusqu'en 1965. De 1966 à 1970 la chute est particulièrement rapide. Elle se poursuit depuis lors, à travers quelques fluctuations, à un rythme ralenti. Les informations dont on dispose concernant les périodes de l'entre-deux-guerres et d'avant la première guerre mondiale (depuis 1880), permettent de soutenir la thèse d'une baisse par paliers. Au cours des cent dernières années, deux ou trois points de rupture peuvent être localisés : la fin de la première guerre mondiale, la seconde moitié des années soixante et, sous certaines réserves, la deuxième guerre mondiale. La présente faiblesse de la rentabilité du capital constitue un record historique si on exclut la grande dépression des années trente. [eng] There has been a dramatic fall in the rate of profit in the United States since worid war II. The profile of this fall is discribed through the findings of the numerous studies of this issue now available. The point of departure following world war II is a high point of profitability. The rate of profit falls throughout the nineteen fifties until its strong restoration in 1965. From 1966 to 1970, a major collapse of profitability occurs and the post 1970 situation is also one of decline through fluctuations. When information is pieced together from studies of profitability of the between-two-wars period and the pre-world-war I period, an impression is depicted of a long run decrease in the rate of profit but by steps. During the last one hundred years, two, possibly three, major downward steps have occured : the end of world war I, the second half of the nineteen sixties and world war II with certain reservations. Following each of these steps the higher rate of profit is never restored. The significance of the earlier studies for the present is that they reveal the US economy to be living through a period of unprecedented low profitability with the possible exception of the great depression of the nineteen thirties.

Suggested Citation

  • Gérard Duménil & Mark Glick & José Rangel, 1984. "La baisse de la rentabilité aux États-Unis : inventaire de recherches et mise en perspective historique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 69-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_6_1_967
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1984.967
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1984.967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1984.967
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_6_1_967
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ofce.1984.967?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Changes in Mechanization: Non-Manufacturing Industries," NBER Chapters, in: Mechanization in Industry, pages 120-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "The Processes Involved in Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages 1-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Weisskopf, Thomas E, 1979. "Marxian Crisis Theory and the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 341-378, December.
    4. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Changes in Mechanization in Selected Manufacturing Industries," NBER Chapters, in: Mechanization in Industry, pages 55-119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barry P. Bosworth, 1982. "Capital Formation and Economic Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(2), pages 273-326.
    6. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
    7. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Economic Organization and Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages 61-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles L. Schultze, 1975. "Falling Profits, Rising Profit Margins, and the Full-Employment Profit Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 449-472.
    9. Dale N. Allman, 1983. "The decline in business profitability: a disaggregated analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 68(Jan), pages 19-26.
    10. Harry Jerome, 1934. "Mechanization in Industry," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jero34-1, March.
    11. Michael C. Lovell, 1978. "The Profit Picture: Trends and Cycles," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 769-789.
    12. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, March.
    13. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven, 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
    14. Frederick C. Mills, 1932. "Economic Tendencies in the United States: Aspects of Pre-War and Post-War Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill32-1, March.
    15. Ralph C. Epstein & Florence M. Clark, 1934. "Industrial Profits in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number epst34-1, March.
    16. Arthur M. Okun & George L. Perry, 1970. "Notes and Numbers on the Profits Squeeze," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 466-473.
    17. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 19-90.
    18. William D. Nordhaus, 1974. "The Falling Share of Profits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 169-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerard Duménil & Dominique Lévy, 1993. "Why Does Profitability Matter? Profitability and Stability in the U.S. Economy since the 1950s," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 27-61, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fred Moseley, 1990. "The Decline of the Rate of Profit in the Postwar U.S. Economy: An Alternative Marxian Explanation," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 22(2-3), pages 17-37, June.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & James Powell, 1986. "The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets: A Comparison of the Prewar and Postwar Eras," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 583-638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    4. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732.
    5. Ward, Zachary, 2017. "Birds of passage: Return migration, self-selection and immigration quotas," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-52.
    6. Jeff Biddle & Elior Cohen, 2022. "Immigration Disruptions and the Wages of Unskilled Labor in the 1920s," Research Working Paper RWP 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Miguel Morin, 2015. "The Labor Market Consequences of Electricity Adoption: Concrete Evidence from the Great Depression," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1554, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Jeanne Lafortune & Ethan Lewis & José Tessada, 2019. "People and Machines: A Look at the Evolving Relationship between Capital and Skill in Manufacturing, 1860–1930, Using Immigration Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 30-43, March.
    9. Lim, Yoonsung & Kim, Jeong-Yoo & Berg, Nathan, 2015. "Price asymmetry revisited from a marketing perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 314-319.
    10. Tomas Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 389-402, September.
    11. Xie, Bin, 2017. "The Effects of Immigration Quotas on Wages, the Great Black Migration, and Industrial Development," IZA Discussion Papers 11214, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2010. "On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 286-306, April.
    13. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    14. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    15. Tetiana Davydiuk & Scott Richard & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2023. "How Risky Are U.S. Corporate Assets?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 141-208, February.
    16. Feldstein, Martin & Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Poterba, James, 1983. "The effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 129-158, July.
    17. Brunila, Anne, 1994. "Investment and financing considerations: Evidence from Finnish panel data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/1994, Bank of Finland.
    18. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Bayraktar, Nihal, 2014. "Fixed investment/fundamental sensitivities under financial constraints," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 25-59.
    21. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "The secular decline in profit rates: time series analysis of a classical hypothesis," MPRA Paper 88248, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_6_1_967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.