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Les conséquences de la fin de l'AMF : le cas de la Tunisie

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  • Jean-Pierre Cling
  • Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière
  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

Abstract

[fre] Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière Jean-Pierre Cling Mohamed Ali Marouani Les conséquences de la fin de l'AMF : le cas de la Tunisie. Les PED réalisent aujourd'hui la quasi- totalité des exportations mondiales d'habillement et la majorité des exportations textiles. Depuis 1974, les quotas instaurés pour les exportations des PED vers les pays industrialisés dans le cadre des AMF ont entraîné d'importantes distorsions dans l'allocation géographique de la production et des exportations de ces produits. La multiplication des accords commerciaux régionaux est allée dans le même sens. Cet article s'intéresse au cas des pays du sud et de l'est de la Méditerranée (PSEM), et plus particulièrement de la Tunisie, qui ont réussi à développer une industrie de l'habillement grâce à l'accès préférentiel au marché européen dont ils bénéficient. La suppression totale des quotas depuis le 1er janvier 2005 se traduira à terme par une concentration accrue du secteur au niveau mondial, au bénéfice des principaux exportateurs (Chine, Inde, etc.) et au détriment des pays qui n'étaient pas soumis aux quotas. Nous évaluons l'impact négatif de ce choc sur l'économie tunisienne à l'aide d'un modèle multisectoriel et dynamique d'équilibre général. Nous estimons que l'activité du secteur du textile-habillement pourrait être fortement affectée, avec pour principales conséquences une baisse de l'investissement global et un accroissement du taux de chômage des travailleurs non qualifiés. [eng] The Impact of the End of the MFA : die Case of Tunisia Clothing and textile exports are increasingly dominated by developing coun- tries. In 1974, developed countries implemented quotas on developing countries exports within the MFA, which resulted in a distorted geographical allocation of production and exports. Regional preferential agreements also contributed to this distortion. This article deals with the case of Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries, and particularly Tunisia, which succeeded in developing a flourishing clothing industry thanks to their preferential access to the European market. The total removal of quotas since January 2005 will result in a higher concentration of the sector which will benefit the main players (China, India, etc.). The main losers would be those who built their prosperity on their preferential treatment. We assess the negative impact of this shock on the Tunisian economy using a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model. The main results are a shrinking of the textile sector which induces a downward pressure on total investment and an increase of the unskilled unemployment rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 151-196

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2005_num_20_2_1575

Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2005.1575
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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