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Y a-t-il des pistes pour la politique économique de la France ou de l'Allemagne ?

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  • Patrick Artus
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    Abstract

    [eng] We analyze the causes of the weakness of growth in France and in Germany : in spite of the strength of exports, the weakness of domestic demand does not permit a visible growth of overall activity. Investment in particular is insufficient, which is not a consequence of high fiscal policies because of the likely non-keynesian effects of these cies. A number of explanations can be listed. The level of real long term rates is still excessive, and the dollar is still undervalued, which should be corrected after monetary unification. The financing of small businesses and of startups is inefficient. As far as the labor market is concerned, continental European countries lack less an increased flexibility than a tax reform that would help reducing the cost of labor. Finally, specially in France, one can question the relevance of tight wage policies (or wage practices), which consist in not distributing productivity gains to wage earners. [fre] Nous analysons les causes de la faiblesse de la croissance en France et en Allemagne ; malgré la vigueur des exportations, la faiblesse de la demande intérieure ne permet pas d'envisager une progression rapide de l'activité globale. L'investissement, en particulier, est insuffisant, ce qui ne résulte pas de la rigueur budgétaire en raison de ses effets probables non keynésiens. Un certain nombre de responsabilités peuvent être évoquées : niveau encore trop élevé des taux d'intérêt réels à long terme ; sous-évaluation du dollar qu'il faudrait pouvoir corriger après l'unification ; incapacité à financer les petites entreprises en forte croissance. En ce qui concerne le marché du travail, plus que d'une flexibilité accrue, les pays européens ont besoin d'une réforme de la structure de la fiscalité qui allège le coût du travail. Enfin, surtout en France, on peut s'interroger sur la pertinence du maintien d'une politique (ou d'une pratique) salariale restrictive, qui consiste à ne pas distribuer aux salariés les gains de productivité.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/rfeco.1997.1018
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/rfeco_0769-0479_1997_num_12_1_1018/rfeco_0769-0479_1997_num_12_1_1018.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 215-231

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1997_num_12_1_1018

    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1997.1018
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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