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Application de la méthode de la comptabilité générationnelle à la France. Quelques facteurs d'instabilité des résultats

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  • Carole Bonnet

Abstract

[fre] La méthode de la comptabilité générationnelle, mise en place au début des années 1990, a pour objectif de quantifier les engagements financiers de long terme des administrations publiques, qui n'apparaissent pas dans le déficit budgétaire traditionnel. Sa mise en œuvre conclut à l'existence d'un déséquilibre intergénérationnel. Le maintien à l'infini des politiques fiscales et sociales actuelles conduiraient à un paiement net (taxes et impôts payés moins transferts reçus) des générations futures plus important que celui des générations actuelles. Si ce déséquilibre, en grande partie dû aux évolutions démographiques, n'est pas remis en cause, son ampleur est largement dépendante des hypothèses retenues pour la construction des comptes générationnels. Dans cet article, les différents facteurs d'instabilité des résultats sont passés en revue et illustrés par la comparaison des différentes études menées sur la France utilisant cette méthodologie. Suivant les hypothèses adoptées quant à l'individualisation des divers impôts et taxes, du traitement des intérêts de la dette, de la ventilation des dépenses d'éducation, de la prise en compte des investissements des administrations publiques, de la mesure de la richesse de l'État ou encore des évolutions des profils de taxes et transferts par âge, le déséquilibre intergénérationnel varie de 1 à 4. [eng] Generational accounting for France: what influences the results?. . Generational accounting, initiated in the early 90's, intends to take the government long term financial liabilities into account. Indeed, these are not included in the standard measure of the budget deficit. Our calculations, using this technique, indicate that French generational policy is imbalanced against future generations. Current policies in France can not be sustained without requiring future generations to pay higher net taxes over their lifetime than current generations pay.. If this generational imbalance, mainly resulting from demographic evolutions, is not contested, its precise size would depend on a great number of assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the impact of these assumptions, by comparing the different French studies using generational accounting.. We show that the generational imbalance may vary from 1 to 4, according to the assumptions relative to the age and sex profiles of taxes and transfers, the treatment of the debt interest payment, the distribution of education expenditures, the treatment of governments's investment spendings, the measure of the net wealth of the government, and the evolution of age and sex profiles of taxes and transfers. We show that the generational imbalance may vary from 1 to 4, according to the assumptions relative to the age and sex profiles of taxes and transfers, the treatment of the debt interest payment, the distribution of education expenditures, the treatment of governments's investment spendings, the measure of the net wealth of the government, and the evolution of age and sex profiles of taxes and transfers.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 53 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 719-766

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_4_410442

Note: DOI:10.2307/3503166
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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