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Epargne privée, solde budgétaire et taux de change réel

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  • Laurent Maurin
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    Abstract

    [fre] Afin de déterminer les taux de change réels d'équilibre de l'euro et du dollar, nous étudions le déficit public comme facteur de distorsion de change. Nous montrons la possibilité, à court et à moyen terme, de sur-réaction du taux de change réel à une variation du solde budgétaire. En intégrant cette variable au modèle du taux de change naturel, nous estimons alors la dynamique du dollar ainsi que celle d'un euro fictif que nous construisons. Pour cela, nous déterminons une variable approchant le taux de préférence pour le présent, variable exogène du modèle. [eng] Private saving, fiscal balance and real exchange rate.. . We develop a simple model which integrates the public deficit in an equilibrium exchange rate model framework. This allows us to expose the overshooting of the exchange rate following a variation of the fiscal balance. Integrating this variable into the NATREX model, we estimate the dollar and the euro dynamics, constucting a fictive euro and a natural saving rate which approximates the time preference.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 52 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 117-133

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_1_410303

    Note: DOI:10.2307/3502964
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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