Scénario pour un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne

[eng] Scenario for an eastern enlargement of the EU . An enlargement of the eu to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECS), would constitute an unprecedented change : ceecs transitions are underway, and eu is currently facing major transformations, reforms, uncertainties and challenges. This paper intend to evaluate macroeconomic consequences of an enlargement, with the International Macroeconomic Model Mimosa. Our study shows that an eastern enlargement would have beneficial macroeconomic consequences relatively modest for the EU current members, but quite substantial for the newcomers. It appears that trade openness and financing are essential for the success of an enlargement process. An increase in Structural Funds currently allowed to the CEECS -relatively modest for the current eu members- would greatly foster more rapid and sustained growth in these countries, and in the rest of Europe, so that the additional transfers would soon be self-financing. This study shows that obstacles to enlargement process do not come from economic difficulties, but mainly stems from political and strategical issues. [fre] Cet article présente les conditions d'un élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne (UE) et la dynamique économique qui pourrait soutenir ce processus. Après une rapide revue des difficultés politiques et institutionnelles posées par l'intégration des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO), une évaluation du coût d'un tel processus est présentée. Enfin, un scénario d'intégration est simulé, qui montre des avantages importants pour les PECO sans coût net pour l'Union européenne.