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Les crises financières : plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

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  • Michel Aglietta
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    Abstract

    [fre] Les crises s’inscrivent dans des cycles financiers où interagissent l’endettement et le mouvement des prix d’actifs. L’expansion financière dérape lorsque le crédit n’est plus fondé sur les perspectives de revenus des emprunteurs mais sur l’anticipation de la valeur de leur richesse. Le cercle vicieux est exacerbé par la valorisation « mark to market », par les règles prudentielles procycliques et par le transfert des risques bancaires via la titrisation et les produits dérivés. Toutes les crises des deux dernières décennies présentent ces caractéristiques. Elles se distinguent par leur gravité selon que les bilans bancaires sont ou non fragilisés. La crise actuelle est de ce point de vue fort sérieuse. Elle a en commun avec celle des années 1930 pour effet de provoquer une restriction de l’offre de crédit et une augmentation durable de son coût.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecofi.2008.5183
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 39-45

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2008_hos_7_1_5183

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2008.5183
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
    3. Buiter, Willem H, 2007. "Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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