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Cible de niveau de prix versus cible d'inflation : état des lieux et perspectives

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  • Didier Eyssartier
  • Ludovic Aubert
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    Abstract

    [fre] Une Banque centrale doit-elle cibler l’inflation ou plutôt le niveau des prix afin de maximiser le bien-être social ? Cet article fait un point sur cette question qui s’est essentiellement posée, dans un cadre nouveau keynésien, caractérisé par la présence de rigidités nominales et d’anticipations rationnelles. Tout d’abord, cet article expose les mécanismes inhérents aux deux types de cible. Puis il donne un rapide aperçu des enjeux sur lesquels les études sur ce thème se sont principalement concentrées. Les auteurs introduisent ensuite la notion de crédibilité de la politique monétaire dans un environnement nouveau keynésien dont une bonne compréhension est nécessaire à l’intuition des résultats sur le choix de la cible. Enfin, la discussion est élargie en introduisant différents aspects complémentaires susceptibles d’être résolus plus efficacement sous une cible de niveau de prix. . Classification JEL : E5, E52, [eng] Price level versus inflation targeting : achievement and challenges . Should a central Bank target the inflation or rather the price level to maximise the social welfare ? This article analyses this question which is essentially set in a new keynesian framework, characterised by nominal rigidities and rational anticipations. First, this article exposes inherent mechanisms to the two types of target. Then it gives an outline of the stakes on which the studies on this subject mainly focused. The authors introduce then the notion of credibility of the monetary policy into a new keynesian environment, a good understanding of which is necessary for the intuition of the results on the choice of the target. Finally, the discussion is widened by introducing various additional aspects susceptible to be more effectively resolved under a price level targeting. . JEL classifications : E5, E52.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

    Volume (Year): 65 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 201-227

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2002_num_65_1_3774

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2002.3774
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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    1. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    2. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 21-30.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
    8. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
    9. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
    10. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
    12. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-31, August.
    13. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
    14. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-38, November.
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