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L'impact d'une nouvelle technologie sur l'emploi

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  • Paul Stoneman

Abstract

[eng] This article presents a methodology that endeavours to take into account all the direct and indirect effects of new technology — here the microelectronics technology — on the level of employment. After having briefly reviewed the shortecomings and the hypothesis of two widely used approaches (the microeconomic approach without feedback effects and the macroeconomic approach in comparative statics), the author develops a third approach in terms of time transition process. From a previous work on the transition process of the computer diffusion in the UK and from a formalized mathematical model, he concludes that the time path of the level of employment depends on the rate of diffusion and the degree of superiority of the new technology upon the old one. In any case, the level of employment will always be lower at the end of the transition process, even if temporary increase can occur during a process. cess of the computer diffusion in the UK and from a formalized mathematical model, he concludes that the time path of the level of employment depends on the rate of diffusion and the degree of superiority of the new technology upon the old one. In any case, the level of employment will always be lower at the end of the transition process, even if temporary increase can occur during a process. [fre] L'article présente une méthode d'analyse permettant d'appréhender tous les effets directs et indirects d'une nouvelle technologie — en l'occurrence la microélectronique — sur l'emploi. L'auteur substitue aux deux approches les plus couramment utilisées, dont il souligne les insuffisances et hypothèses, une troisième approche en termes d'un processus de transition. Des travaux antérieurs appliquant une telle approche, il déduit en fait que le cheminement dans le temps de l'emploi dépend du rythme de diffusion et du degré de supériorité de la nouvelle technologie par rapport à l'ancienne. Dans tous les cas, pour un niveau de consommation donné, le niveau de l'emploi sera toujours inférieur à la fin du processus de transition, même si une augmentation temporaire peut intervenir au cours du processus. de supériorité de la nouvelle technologie par rapport à l'ancienne. Dans tous les cas, pour un niveau de consommation donné, le niveau de l'emploi sera toujours inférieur à la fin du processus de transition, même si une augmentation temporaire peut intervenir au cours du processus.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/rei.1981.2020
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie industrielle.

Volume (Year): 17 (1981)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 76-91

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recind:rei_0154-3229_1981_num_17_1_2020

Note: DOI:10.3406/rei.1981.2020
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rei

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